Youngsters or old-timers? Who is moving to New Brunswick?

I recently published data on in-migration to New Brunswick by age group but our old friend Dr. Herb Emery wanted to know the migration (net) by age group. In other words, we may be seeing 1,500 people aged 20-24 move in but are 5,000 moving out so that on a net basis we are in a negative position?

This chart shows in- and outward migration between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021 by age cohort. You will see there are far more in-migrants that out migrants in just about every cohort but in general it is true that we bring in more older residents relative to the older residents that move to Kelowna.

Still you have to look at this in absolute value terms and not relative terms. On an absolute basis NB brought in 7,800 hundred under the age of 35 from elsewhere in Canada and lost just under 6,000 in that age group. We also brought in 2,400 over the age of 55 and only lost 1,200 but again, in absolute terms we are attracting more younger than older - at least in the most recent year.

If we look at the five year average, the picture is murkier. We actually have four younger age cohorts where more young left than came in. These correspond to people leaving for university (in two cases) and, possibly, some loss of 30 something immigrants who settled here and then moved. Still, even over a five year average we brought in an average of 6,600 under the age of 35 and lost an average of 6,100. Among the 55+ we brought in 2,000 but only lost 1,200.

On balance, then, it is fair to say that last year was an outlier across the spectrum. We attracted more young and more older people - relative to those leaving the province - but the relative differentiates were highest in the 15-24 age group and over 45s.

Everyone is speculating but no one really knows for sure. Again I want to reiterate that in absolute terms we attracted nearly 5,000 people in the 20-34 age group and 2,200 kids under the age of 15. That looks a lot like families moving here. On the flip side we attracted 2,400 over the age of 55.

The question is whether or not this is a blip or a trend.

The good news is that over the past five years we have attracted more here than we have lost (117 in for every 100 out in an average year) and this doesn’t include inward immigration (it does include the outward flow of immigrants to other provinces we just don’t know to what extent).