Who's your city? Contrasting US and CAN data

I have read several articles recently contrasting recent population growth in the US versus Canada. They all draw different conclusions and none of got to what I think is the real point.

Some talk about Canada’s vision to have a 100 million by 2100 and how the US should have more ambition. Some talk about the problem of too much immigration. A couple just over the weekend talked about Canada’s desire to build global cities in Toronto, Vancouver, etc.

Not to beat this topic to death but Canada’s population growth is primarily about immigration but it is not about Toronto or Montreal or Vancouver. Yes those areas continue to attract a lot of immigrants but the growth is due mostly to the demand for population growth in the rest of Canada. Consider the following chart. In 2022, adjusted for population size Canada’s biggest urban areas were not even in the top 10. If you look at the last four years combined (on an average annual basis), Toronto sneaks into the top 10.

The point is that provincial and federal government decided a number of years ago that immigrants were needed across Canada and not just the biggest urban centres. In the early 2000s, communities such as Steinbach and Winkler in Manitoba went first because they had a pressing need for workers. By the 2020s the demand is across the country urban and rural.

In the U.S. they are facing the same demographic realities - mainly Boomer retirements and not enough young people to take their place in the workforce - but they are not seeing a dramatic uptick in immigration to many of the small and mid-sized urban centres (there are many exclusions of course in Texas, California, Nevada, etc.). As a result, there are small cities and towns offering $10,000 bonuses to get people to move there and others are just letting fate take its course.

So to parrot Richard Florida’s ‘Who’s your city?’ - this intentionally awkward question needs to be answered across Canada and the U.S.

It’s not about Toronto the Great. For once it is about Moncton and Charlottetown and Brandon.

We need to make sure economic development, workforce development and immigration are aligned as much as possible sectorally and geographically.

But the biggest learning here is that folks that think about things in national and international terms need to think a little more about what is going on sub-nationally.