Two thumbs down for Frasier's OPED in the TJ. We need better insight from these think tanks.

Normally I find the work of the Frasier Institute thoughtful and mostly nuanced so the OPED in the paper today was surprisingly unnuanced.  It was entitled “NB makes less median employment income – why?”.

The authors, analysts at Frasier, talk about the workforce in New Brunswick.  They state the low employment rate as ‘worrying’ but they admit when you back out the 65+ share, the gap is quite low.  Further, they forget to mention that at least some New Brunswickers don’t work because they don’t have to whereas in higher cost of living places in Canada there is more pressure for people to work.  Nor do they mention the high level of seasonal workers in New Brunswick which reduces the employment rate.

But the strangest segment in the commentary has to do with their characterization of the unemployment situation. They state “[t]here are more people actively looking for work in the province than are unable to find it” (whatever that means, it’s a direct quote).  I assume they mean it is harder to find work here than elsewhere in Canada. They cite an 8.1% unemployment rate compared to 5.5% in the rest of Canada (excluding Atlantic Canada).

There were 104,360 New Brunswickers who collected EI in 2019 or an amount equivalent to 24% of all employment income earners during the year.  Across Canada, the ratio was 11%.  In other words, there were more than twice as many people collecting EI in NB than in Canada. We don’t have the data for 2022 but it will be similar.

Now, not all the 104,360 EI earners were seasonally employed but conservatively 40,000 or so were (maybe more).  So if you backed out those 40,000 the ‘real’ unemployment rate in New Brunswick would be at least as low as the national unemployment rate.

If Frasier really wanted to provide a nuanced picture they would have told readers in March 2023 there were nearly 13,000 vacant jobs across NB – 64% more than March 2019. The number of vacant jobs in March 2023 was 2.5 times more than in March 2016. If 7,000 workers magically appeared tomorrow and took vacant jobs it would still not get us back to the level in March 2016.

Just about anywhere in New Brunswick, if you want a job you can find one.  It may not be a job that matches your expectations, but you can still find one. 

These days I am looking for stronger analysis from groups like Frasier.  These old canards are too simplistic for the times we live in. 

What we really need is greater insight into how places like New Brunswick can get GDP growth back to 2-3% per year on a sustained basis. We need insight into immigration policies and workforce development policies that ensure there are enough workers to meet workforce demand. And, we might even need some nuanced thinking about how to deal with seasonal EI or how to encourage people to stay in the workforce longer.