On energy, we have to walk and chew gum at the same time
I had the opportunity last week to facilitate the Energy Economics module of the Energy Fundamentals for Leaders course at UNB Saint John's Saint John College. It is an excellent course and is always highly rated by the students. Although it is a little strange to me - in normal education the teachers grade the students but in ‘adult’ education the students grade the teacher. If they were too critical of my performance, I might get voted off the Island….
One of the things we talked about was British Columbia’s energy sector. Most students agreed that BC has the ‘greenest’ brand among the provinces and some were surprised to see the following facts. British Columbia has:
The fastest growing oil and gas extraction sector (+86% in GDP over 10 years)
The largest coal mining sector by far in Canada ($2.6B GDP in 2022)
Seen an 86% increase in natural gas pipeline transmission GDP over 10 years.
See a 56% increase in petroleum refining GDP over 10 years.
The BC government collected $2.3 billion in natural gas royalties in 2022-2023.
The bottom line is that BC was both the first province in Canada to have a carbon tax and a province that is exporting coal and natural gas to Asia - and generating significant economic benefits.
I know some of you will be triggered by this - in both directions - but facts are facts.
I’m not sure what this actually means for New Brunswick. My suspicion is any attempt to develop a small natural gas sector in the Sussex area will bring a hailstorm of criticism from a small but powerful lobby in New Brunswick. If the frequency of articles in the NB Media Co-op is any indication, get ready for a massive battle over new nuclear energy in the province.
Debate is important. Public engagement is important and as we have seen time and time again in this province if the public is convinced to turn on an industry or opportunity it is almost impossible to put the genie back in the bottle.
We shall see. Whether it is natural gas, nuclear energy or critical minerals mining, - not to mention the hundreds of wind turbines being proposed - the energy sector will likely be a flashpoint for public debate in the next few years.
If we base our actions on mythical energy sources or rights of parents on how loud either side can yell, we are in trouble. Belief has become a synonym for fact and truth, when the real truth is that belief is superstition that belongs in Disney fantasy movies and fundamental religions.
Perhaps I am a cynic, but I don't see how we get from here to a carbon neutral society without either using nuclear power and natural gas, or instigating a world financial collapse on a scale that is unimaginable. Perhaps we as a society believe any price is justified if it rids us of carbon emissions.
If we take a step back and look at our realistic options, humanity could be carbon neutral without economic sacrifice, but we would need to throw out many of our beliefs and put our faith in constructive and positive engineering and science, and we would need to admit the third world into our exclusive first world club. If we continue on our present path, we will run out of credit (money) to finance our 'beliefs;' governments will fall, the third world will revolt, political chaos will reign, and climate change will accelerate. History will remember us as the twenty-first century Luddites who tilted at windmills rather than fix our problems with the tools we had available.
New Brunswick is spending millions on unproven nuclear technology when we live next to the Bay of Fundy with tides strong enough to scour rocks from cliffs (I worked at Joggins for a year, I know whereof I speak) and winds strong enough to knock you off your feet. Both of these natural phenomena hold multiple nuclear plants worth of energy. Yet, we choose to study a technology that could lead to catastrophic consequences (re: Chernobyl and Fukushima) if the safeguards fail. Fracking and nuclear both have clear and significant risks. Tidal and wind power have lower risks and are becoming cost competitive with every other type of energy. Why not choose a route that could employ more New Brunswickers?