New Brunswick needs more international students, not less
I have heard from several sources in the past few days that the federal government is looking to curtail the number of international students at Canada’s post-secondary institutions or at least curtail the post-graduate work permits.
This is a bad idea.
This chart shows the number of post-secondary graduates per 100 people retiring from the workforce (using LFS data). So in the 1990s and early 2000s New Brunswick had far more graduates than retirees - that was a good thing because it meant we had enough graduates to meet workforce growth demand -not just to replace retirees. And you will note we were actually ahead of Ontario in those early days.
Now, Ontario has way way more post-secondary graduates relative to retirees. Which province has the strongest talent pipeline? So which province is best positioned for growth?
So here’s the problem. If someone gets the bright idea to curtail international students or work permits, who is likely to get hit the hardest - Ontario or New Brunswick - based on history?
New Brunswick should be allowed - encouraged - to bring in enough international students to support replacement demand and a robust growth demand. National levels should reflect provincial priorities and ambitious targets.
Of course this is only one measure and just meant to show how it is changing over time. Not every retiree is replaced by a PSE grad - not every retiree is replaced at all. Further, some come back into the workforce after formally retiring.
All this is showing is that we used to have a surplus of PSE graduates relative to retirees and now that surplus has dropped by 30-40% even as Ontario is boosting PSE enrolment (in large part with international students).
Giddy up.