Occasionally I feel the need to write about natural gas. I’m not particularly convinced we will see any new natural gas development in New Brunswick but it is worth reminding folks that we a) import hundreds of millions of dollars worth of natural gas for our own use every year at a high price; b) miss out on economic development opportunities because we don’t have domestic gas; and c) are unable to support export opportunities (such as supplying Europe).
The standard responses are two-fold: 1) we are not going to need gas because we are working towards the elimination of fossil fuel energy by 2050 and 2) it will wreak havoc on our environment.
Just a reminder that we haven’t really properly defined ‘net zero’ but one thing is for sure. Every major projection shows Canada still producing a lot of natural gas by 2050. This chart is from 2021 and comes directly from the Canada Energy Regulator and its long term forecast for natural gas production. The dotted line shows gas production based on current policies (rising substantially between now and 2050) but even under the evolving policies scenario natural gas production in Canada will remain at or slightly below the current level of production through 2040 with only a slight dip by 2050. Under the current policies scenario, natural gas production in Canada will rise substantially by 2050. Let’s assume we get those evolved policies in place. The country remains a massive producer of natural gas. To be specific Alberta and BC - particularly Canada’s green coast - the province that introduced the first carbon tax. BC will be even under the evolving policies scenario be producing nearly double the natural gas in 2040 it was producing in 2020.
And, yes, most of that gas will be produced using the dreaded hydraulic fracturing. Here is a BC government fact sheet stating “Hydraulic fracturing has existed in British Columbia since the 1960s, with no incidence of groundwater contamination.”
Natural gas production under the current policies scenario and the evolving policies scenario
Natural gas is giving me indigestion
As usual David, you are right on the money. It is critical that natural gas production return to NB in an environmentally safe manner. The technology exists for that. However, it won’t happen unless the Government and the First Nations agree on how and when. Further, in order to get to yes on natural gas production and distribution, reasonable First Nation concerns and issues beyond natural gas coproduction risks need to be addressed as part of rebuilding the extremely poor relationship between the Province and the First Nations. The leaders on both sides need to tone down the rhetoric and return to the table with the objective being a multi-dimensional arrangement.