Is Toronto OK with less immigration?

I listened to The Hub podcast this week and David Frum was grumbling about the rise in immigration in Canada. So was the host (Spicer). Also, the G&M had an editorial worried about the high levels of immigration in recent days.

As I have said multiple times on these pages, if these folks want less immigration, which area of Canada should take the hit?

Anybody outside of the MTV (Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver) knows that if the feds squeeze immigration, the ROC (Rest of Canada) is likely to take the hit. If you look at the data in the first nearly two decades of the 2000s, immigrant flows into MTV were relatively stable. The increase across Canada was due to the rest of the country finally benefitting from immigration. Places like Regina and Brandon and Charlottetown.

Yes, in the past few years, there has been a surge in the MTV (mainly T and somewhat V) but the ROC has also seen increases.

My concern has been stated many times. If the feds curtail immigration, it is likely the ROC will take the hit. If Toronto, et. al. says we are fine with less immigration then I’m OK.

And to the assertion that all employment growth is in the largest urban centres that, again, is a strange statement coming from these folks. MTV is home to about 50% of all workers in CMAs across the country and they have been the location for 52% of employment growth over the past five years. About their relative share.

The fastest growing CMAs in Canada by employment are not MTV. They are BLSHMA.

And the final old canard that gets trotted out that immigrants to the rest of Canada end up moving to Toronto anyway, again doesn’t jive with recent data. Take the examples of Halifax and Moncton. Both with very strong positive migration from Toronto over the three years for which we have recent data. Moncton’s positive migrant flow with Toronto dates back years.

So, in conclusion. If the Toronto-based experts want less immigration they should be clear that they are ok with less immigration to MTV. If they get their wish and the feds curtail immigration and it ends up harming smaller urban and even rural economies from Halifax to Kelowna (immigration levels tripled since 2018) that will not be good for the country as a whole.