Until recently I never even considered that a place like New Brunswick could attract a computer chip fabrication facility. If you look at the history of where these plants are located and the massive government incentives, this was just one in a series of industries (auto manufacturing, etc.) that have been completely off the radar. Even if the feds were willing to put billions on the table, they would site any such plant in the Windsor to Toronto corridor (or maybe Quebec if the provincial government put up similar $$.
But now when I read “OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wants to raise up to $7 trillion for a “wildly-ambitious” tech project to boost the world’s chip capacity”, I think the prospects start to look interesting.
Why?
Potentially cheap power. The new NB Electricity Act could lead to substantial investment in renewable and clean energy at low cost.
Access to water. I wasn’t aware of the requirement but apparently it is so and New Brunswick as well as other parts of Atl. Canada can meet this need.
Just the sheer level of investment. When there were a few $5-$10 billion chip plants being dangled around - governments went after them like ravenous wolves (from an incentives perspective). I suspect the incentive levels will have to come down but there will be more focus on long term operating costs.
Why should we care?
I get this question a lot these days. All I can say is that if you look throughout the history of this province, you see new industries emerging every generation and old ones dying out (ship building more than once). We need to be looking for new industries that are at least someone aligned with our capacity (land, transportation infrastructure, energy, natural resources, workforce development, etc.) and working to develop a value prop for those industries.
The vision of a fully deindustrialized province where health care is the overwhelmingly largest industry is not a great vision for future generations.
I would still say it is a very long shot but if I was advising ONB - putting this in the window as a potential - at least fleshing out the opportunity - might not be a bad investment of time.
Am I missing something here?
NB Power is over $5B in debt. In other words, it's carrying debt to subsidize artificially low power rates.
Thinking 'outside the box' to lure what seems like today's oil of the future is great. But let's keep the conversation grounded in reality to make it happen.
The answer is NO. I have been in several chip foundries and they are massive investments requiring highly skilled engineers and other specialists. Let's stick to what we know an learn to do it better.