I have been reading about the record levels of migration to New Brunswick in the media. While it is true that the Q1 2021 inward migration number was the highest for a Q1 in recent years it is by no means the highest quarterly inward migration by a long shot. In fact, we had more move in in Q2 2020 than in Q1 2021 and back in Q2 2018 we had 84% more move in compared to the so-called record in Q1 2021.
Here is the average inward migration from elsewhere in Canada for the four quarters since Covid-19 settled in compared to the same periods in the years before:
So, no hordes yet. In fact in the two 4-quarter periods preceding Covid-19 the inward migration was higher.
The real concern continues to be population growth, in general. Again, looking at the Covid-19 window - Q2 2020 to Q1 2021, New Brunswick’s population growth was below average and 57% below the growth rate in Prince Edward Island.
As I have said before, we need to see annualized population growth of around 1.5% per year moving forward if we are to shore up the labour market and provide the workforce to support a growing economy.
Here are the statistics you should be paying more attention to. The size of the born-in-Canada workforce in New Brunswick has been shrinking for the most part since 2009.
The good news is that immigrants are starting to make up for the born-in-Canada losses. Just since 2017 there now 6,000 more immigrants in the New Brunswick workforce, an increase of 30%.
The bad news is that 2020 clobbered our immigration numbers and 2021 is off to a slow start.
Good analysis as always David. I don't see how the NB government's policy of no rent control will contribute to population growth. People from outside will see NB rents as the wild west, with carpetbagging investors from outside the province buying up everything in sight and doubling rents. Our own children, faced with paying Toronto rents on a New Brunswick salary, will choose to move in order to get the higher paychecks that go with higher rents elsewhere. Seniors will leave the province to move somewhere with a modicum of rent control to survive on a fixed income. No rent control means uncertainty. Uncertainty means hesitation. Hesitation means reviewing options. Reviewing options means going elsewhere. This lack of foresight will cost our province dearly.