A return to the good 'ol days of the early 2000s
Another editorial in a national newspaper complaining about the ‘broken’ immigration system. Another that completely ignores one of the defining characteristics of immigration in the past few years: that finally it started to directly benefit all regions of the country. Not even a passing reference. And then there is this little chestnut:
“A Conservative government, Mr. Poilievre promises, would not permit immigration levels in any given year to exceed the number of new homes built in the previous year. This would take immigration levels down to about 250,000 annually, roughly the level set by the Conservatives under Stephen Harper, and well below the current Liberal target. An intake of 250,000 may be too low (BTW this is the Globe and Mail). The revised Liberal plan itself will see Canada’s population decline over the next two years, at least in theory.”
In 2009, the number of people born in Canada and participating in the New Brunswick workforce peaked at 381,000 according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. In 2024 - 15 years later - there are 370,700 people born in Canada and participating in the New Brunswick workforce - and this includes that influx from central Canada after the pandemic - that is not likely to continue.
The number of immigrants participating in the New Brunswick workforce went from 12,400 to 40,800 over the same period and that doesn’t include 20,000 or so temporary workers.
The Liberals are less clear about their immigration plan but they are in a cuttin’ mood too.
We are heading towards an immigration policy that might just kill a nascent economic renewal in Atlantic Canada, northern Ontario and other places in Canada.
Of course, after a number of years of misery, Ottawa will get the picture and roll out some new version of the ‘Atlantic Immigration Pilot’ but by then we will have missed out on a decade of opportunity.
In my view it could even be worse. In Ontario’s own fast population growth forecasts they have that province alone needing 240,000 immigrants per year. So, if you bring in 250,000 and Ontario wants 240,000. What’s left for the rest?
Here’s what could happen. Both the Conservatives or Liberals curtail immigration. Demand for workers remains strong in southern Ontario, etc. so even the immigrants that settle in Charlottetown or Miramichi or Cape Breton feel the pull of the Big Smoke. Sound familiar? Deja vu? So they leave their jobs and communities in the east and migrant to central Canada. Of course this assumes that Mike Moffat gets his way and houses are built.
So let’s say some enlighten politician decides to hammer Ontario (cut annual immigration to 80,000 or so - its share of 250,000) and keep levels in Atlantic Canada at a desirable level. What happens next?
So we are back to a national workforce development policy that hurts places like Atlantic Canada - for no good reason.
Yes, we need housing. Yes, we need services. Yes, willy nilly immigration is not good. Yes, we must have community support for immigration. Yes, yes and a few more yeses.
But I have talked to a number of businesses in the past few weeks that are seeing their workers deported. People that are in good, career jobs. People that are vitally needed for the businesses success. Their work permit runs out. They are deported.
What good is a shrinking workforce, an aging population and declining export industries in Atlantic Canada to the rest of Canada? Make no mistake the jobs you lose first are the ones that are not tied to the local economy (i.e. export industries).
You want to find out what happens when you squeeze immigration and continue radio silence (or, indeed full throated support) from everywhere except dark and marginal corners of Substack?
Get ready. It’s coming.
Sadly, I think you're right on the money. How did we get here? I don't understand the objections to immigrants filling jobs we have available. I've been a businessman all my life, and one thing has always been constant... the search for good, reliable employees. Expansion has never been a question of pay rate or subsidies... a good employee is always worth what the market demands you pay them! It is wrong to think that immigrants take the available housing or that there is a housing shortage. The shortage is cheap housing, and that is a different topic entirely, one that has nothing to do with immigration and everything to do with speculation and regulation.
Why is immigration a bargain? Because it costs in the neighbourhood of a million dollars to bring up a child and educate it to an undergraduate degree or a handworker's red seal level. I know a few immigrants, and every one of them is at that level or higher. My cardiologist is from India...my family doctor is from South Africa, and the last time I was in the hospital, the majority of the very competent nurses who helped me were from the Philippines. We have a productive lifespan of less than 40 of our average 80 years, and getting 30 of those unproductive years at no cost is a bargain! In addition, our society doesn't want and thinks it can't afford 3 children per family. And that's why we need immigrants!
I'm all for growth, especially here in the Maritime provinces — we absolutely deserve to attract and retain quality people. But what we really need are skilled tradespeople: construction workers, plumbers, carpenters, electricians, and others who build the backbone of our communities.
From the outside looking in — and I know I’m not alone — it feels like what we’ve mostly seen are large, already-profitable corporations like Tim Hortons, McDonald's, Walmart, and others benefiting from government subsidy programs. These programs were designed to bring in workers, but the end result seems to have been tax dollars supporting the payroll of businesses that could already afford it.
I’ve seen countless comments from parents frustrated that their kids couldn’t land part-time jobs at these businesses, only to learn that it was simply more profitable for the company to hire a subsidized worker instead. And honestly, I can’t fault the businesses — if I were in their position, I’d likely make the same choice.
But the real loss here isn’t just the job itself — it’s the experience. When a subsidized position is filled by an adult immigrant, it often takes away an important opportunity for local adolescents to get their first taste of the working world. Part-time jobs teach teens about responsibility, financial literacy, and give them a glimpse into the daily realities their parents face. For many of us, part-time work during our teenage years was a rite of passage — it certainly was for me, and for my own kids too. It should be for this generation as well. There is no way you can justify this argument on a spreadsheet.
I don't believe in wage subsidies for large corporations and financially well off franchisees. There are plenty of people out there in need of a second job just to pay the rent. In short, I agree with increased immigration, but it must be targeted to the kind of jobs we need filled. And if you know of a good plumber and carpenter I'm in need of their services.