A grim outlook for Atlantic Canada under curtailed immigration

In a recent Hub.ca interview, Jason Kenney went on a long, sustained rant about just how bad the Trudeau government has screwed up immigration after his highly successful and world admiring time in government. Interrupted only slightly from time to time with huzzahs by his interviewer, Sean Speer, Kenney railed against even the rise in permanent resident admissions (which have been rising slowly every year and were 475,000 in 2023).

I walked away from that interview thinking it seems clear the Conservative brain trust - aided by virtually every economist that I have seen commenting about this - is planning a dramatic cut to temporary flows (students, workers) and even permanent resident admissions.

Now I like Kenney. I thought he was a competent federal Minister and I think he was hard done by in Alberta. But I worry these guys are not giving Atlantic Canada a second thought (I guess why would they?).

I wrote last time about the exciting potential of Newfoundland and Labrador in my last post. I think that province could be at the front end of a growth spurt - there are many ducks lining up.

But it is all predicated on a substantial increase in population and, specifically, working age population.

Here are a few data points:

When Kenney/Harper were in government, NL had about the same number of births as deaths each year. Now there are 58 births per 100 deaths (112 in Ontario).

Newfoundland attracted very few immigrants during the Harper years (less than 700 in an average year). In the past two years, the province attracted an average of 4,000. Adding in temporary migration, foreign population moving to the province is the only reason the population is growing.

As of 2022, there were nearly 90,000 NLers in the workforce 55+. There are now more heading towards retirement than the entire young workforce aged 15-34. In Ontario there are 141 aged 15-34 in the workforce for every 100 aged 55+. That is a massive demographic advantage.

Let’s say the federal government cuts permanent resident admissions to, let’s say, 300,000 per year. According to IRCC, Ontario alone admitted 207,000 permanent residents last year. The Ontario Ministry of Finance is projecting 200,000+ PRs per year as part of its population growth forecast.

How do you think NL or NB or NS or even PEI fares in an environment where the largest provinces want as many or more PRs even as the feds cut the numbers?

We need a population expansion led growth plan in this region. We need to send a clear signal to the business community that they can invest here because we have a plan to eliminate that demographic deficit.

If the federal government cuts us off at the knees - to great applause from Sean Speer - our economy is headed for trouble and our ability to sustainably fund public services.

Yes we need to work on productivity, housing, public services, yadda, yadda, yadda. But we need a surge in population and a clear path forward as a foundation for future prosperity in this region.

I think someone should pin Trudeau, Poilievre and Singh down on one single question: Will you develop national targets for PRs, international students and TFWs as a roll up of provincial priorities or some top down squeeze hoping that everything will work out?

In Canada, the big dogs eat first.

This is the way it has been since Confederation.