2026 – New Brunswick’s 1984?

In 2006, Shawn Graham’s government released its self-sufficiency agenda. It was a 20 year plan meant to transform the province.  By 2026, there would be another 100,000 people living here.  By 2026, the provincial government would be so fiscally strong that there would be no need for federal Equalization payments.  Tax reform leading to reduce personal income tax and higher consumption tax (as per Jack Mintz’s recommendation) was to have made New Brunswick a leader in innovative tax policy.  Municipal government reform was meant to give enough scale and employer local leadership around the province.  Our post-secondary education system would be fundamentally transformed (UNB SJ was to be the next MIT).  As I have said in the past, the Graham agenda – like it or not – was the most ambitious thing we have seen in our lifetimes.

Of course, what happened was slightly different.  New Brunswick went into what I have called a ‘lost decade’ from abut 2007 to 2016 where annual economic growth dropped by 80%, population growth stagnated and the size of the workforce actually shrunk.  Business investment was significantly curtailed and exports as a share of GDP declined fairly sharply.  Post-secondary enrolment declined.  There was no significant tax reform, no municipal reform, no post-secondary reform (not exactly true, the public college system was redesigned) and our dependence on equalization – at least in absolute terms – increased.

So, starting around 2009 I developed an alternate vision for 2026.  I wrote about it in columns, articles and blogs.  I made dozens of presentations to Rotaries, Chambers and other groups and this vision – more of a warning looked like this:

By 2026, New Brunswick, and the rest of the Maritime Provinces, would continue to shrink until the point we had lost the lion’s share of our export industries, were struggling to find workers even for local service industries and our median age had shot past 50.  A frustrated federal government would establish a Royal Commission on the Future of the Maritimes headed by an octogenarian Frank McKenna who would conclude the three provinces should be merged into the Maritime Provinces, government and public services slashed and concentrated and a full court press put on trying to at least see economic development in 2-3 of the largest cities.

I felt this was a reasonable outcome.  If we had continued on the same economic and population trajectory we were on back then (by the way, PEI had started to turn things around in 2010-2011 well before NB and NS), it did not seem sustainable.

So, 2026 is just around the corner – will we need McKenna to lead the Royal Commission?  Unlikely, unless the Royal Commission is on the topic of how to sustain high levels of population growth.

By 2026, New Brunswick will indeed have surpassed 100,000 growth (according to Stats Can as of today the population is 843,673 and in 2006 it was 745,621).  Real GDP growth is likely to have rebounded from the Lost Decade (whether we fully rebound will depend on exports).  We will still need a couple of billion or more in Equalization but that was always the most unrealistic of the 2006 reforms.  We have local government reform although Finn is of the view the government did not give local government enough fiscal tools to be truly effective. 

Is New Brunswick and the rest of the region positioned at the front end of a generation of growth and prosperity?  It is certainly not guaranteed.  There are concerns about the next generation of export-focused economic development. Natural resources development is sputtering. Net Zero 2050 will lead to winners and losers and it is not clear where places like New Brunswick will end up.  The unprecedented rise in population mobility and remote work spurred by the pandemic is another unknown.  Some of New Brunswick’s largest private sector employers have gone almost exclusively virtual with their workforce (think the vacant 600-800 person Rogers call centre in Moncton).

But things are certainly looking more positive today than my Jeremiah years (2009-2013) when I was out there warning about the coming reckoning. 

I think when the history of this period is written, the Ivany report in Nova Scotia (circa 2013) will be considered an important turning point.  I had the opportunity to do some consulting on that report and wrote one of the appendices.  At the time some folks dismissed it as just another report among many – but it does seem to have spurred action.   

Mighty oaks from little acorns grow.